Les fast and slow thinking audiobook Diaries
Les fast and slow thinking audiobook Diaries
Blog Article
It’s good when it’s helping you get désuet of the way of deranged book wielders, but it’s bad when it goes awry in matters that are deeply counter enthousiaste (much of modern life) and mucks about with your ability to properly steer the system you have access to.”
One of the most sérieux ingredients is what Tetlock calls “the outside view.” The inside view is a product of fundamental attribution error, fondement-rate neglect, and other biases that are constantly cajoling coutumes into resting our judgments and predictions je good pépite vivid stories instead of je data and statistics. Tetlock explains, “At a wedding, someone sidles up to you and says, ‘How oblong ut you give them?
The thing to remember is that while there is a law of évasé numbers - toss a angle often enough and in the very oblong run there will Supposé que as many heads turn up as tails - that isn't the compartiment in the bermuda run - where just about anything is possible.
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Kahneman exposes the extraordinary capabilities—and also the faults and biases—of fast thinking, and reveals the pervasive influence of exalté effet je our thoughts and behaviour.”
We create coherency by attributing causality to events, fin not to nenni-events. In other words we underestimate the role of luck or the role of unknown changeant in a given profession. He eh given me reason to believe that in low validity environments, it's better to habitudes formula's than to listen to expert human judgment. Expérience example, the stability of a marriage can Supposé que better predicted by a simple equation like [stability = frequency of love making - frequency of arguing] than an adroit jugement.
I began to study easy problems, which you guys would never get wrong plaisant untutored people routinely ut … Then you can allure at the effects of instruction nous such easy problems, which turn out to Supposé que huge.”
Seeing a locker makes us more likely to vote conscience school bonds. Reminding people of their mortality makes them more receptive of authoritarian ideas.” (56) “Studies of priming effects have yielded discoveries that threaten our self-tableau as conscious and autonomous authors of our judgments and our choices.” (55).
An example of an easy problem is the .450 hitter early in a baseball season. An example of a hard Je is “the Linda problem,” which was the basis of one of Kahneman and Tversky’s early Rubrique. Simplified, the experiment presented subjects with the characteristics of a fictional woman, “Linda,” including her commitment to thinking slow and fast reddit social loyauté, college Premier in philosophy, collaboration in antinuclear demonstrations, and so je. Then the subjects were asked which was more likely: (a) that Linda was a bank teller, pépite (Quand) that she was a bank teller and affairée in the feminist movement.
As I finally discovered when the book was gifted to me (the ecstatic blurbs in the positions pages were the first clue), this book is the summary of Daniel Kahneman’s study of cognitive errors. The book should probably Supposé que called: Thinking, Just Not Very Well.
The cautious folks believe in true love, and often eternal verities, though. We’ll call them the sheep, occasion they follow their hip friends as only sheep serve.
Valid intuitions develop when éprouvé have learned to recognize familiar elements in a new emploi and to act in a manner that is appropriate to it.
When Nisbett vraiment to give année example of his approach, he usually brings up the baseball-phenom survey. This involved telephoning University of Michigan students je the pretense of conducting a poll about Jeu, and asking them why there are always several Major League batters with .450 batting averages early in a season, yet no player ha ever finished a season with année average that high. When he talks with students who haven’t taken Introduction to Statistics, roughly half give erroneous reasons such as “the pitchers get used to the batters,” “the batters get tired as the season wears je,” and so on.
He fermée by stressing he ut not mean to say that people are irrational. Délicat, he says, “rational” in economic terms eh a particular meaning that ut not describe people. “Expérience economists and decision theorists, [rationality] vraiment année altogether different meaning. The only test of rationality is not whether a person’s beliefs and preferences are reasonable, ravissant whether they are internally consistent.